OLMIS

by Nick Beleiciks
Published Jan-25-2008

Introduction Population by Workforce Investment Board Region Working-Age Population Varies by Region Population Grows in Most Cities and Towns Future Population Growth

Oregon's population was 3,745,455 on July 1, 2007, according to recently released estimates from Portland State University's Population Research Center. The state added 54,950 residents since July 1, 2006, an amount roughly equal to the population of Corvallis. The statewide annual growth rate of 1.5 percent was slightly below last year's growth rate of 1.6 percent.

Oregon ranks as the 27^th most populated state according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates, nestled between Kentucky and Oklahoma. Oregon continued to be the 11th-fastest growing state for the second straight year. The nation as a whole grew 1.0 percent over the year, with the fastest growth occurring in the South and West regions of the country.

The Oregon Employment Department develops and releases a variety of data at the statewide and sub-state workforce region levels. The 15 regional reports help local Workforce Investment Boards serve job seekers and businesses at the local level. Table 1 lists the counties that make up each region. Most regions consist of more than one county. Region 5 (Lane County), Region 6 (Douglas County), and Region 15 (Clackamas County) are the only single-county regions.

Knowing the total population in each workforce region comes in handy when studying regional labor market reports. The largest workforce region by population is Region 2 (Multnomah and Washington counties) with a population of 1,221,100. It added 18,970 residents in 2007, the most for any region. The smallest workforce region by population is Region 14 (Grant, Harney, and Malheur counties) with a population of 46,880. It was the only region to lose residents in 2007. Region 10 (Crook, Deschutes, and Jefferson counties) grew 5.1 percent last year, more than three times as fast as the state.

Figure 1 shows where the workforce regions are located, and how they fared in terms of population change. The darker shaded regions represent faster growth. Not surprisingly given recent trends, the fastest growing regions are in Central Oregon, and the Medford and Portland areas. The Willamette Valley and North Coast regions grew at about the state's rate of growth, while the Eastern and South Coast regions showed little or no population growth.

Total population estimates include individuals typically not expected to be found in the workplace, such as minors and retirees. For workforce development purposes, it is helpful to know what the ‘working-age' population of a region is. This group consists of people between the ages of 18 and 64, those old enough to work full time but not yet old enough to retire. Not everyone in this age group is working or looking for work of course, but the figure does help illustrate the potential size of a region's workforce.

The working-age population in each region is listed in Table 2. Statewide, 64.1 percent of Oregon's population is in the working-age group. At the regional level, the size of the working-age population corresponds closely to the size of the region; large regions have large working-age populations and small regions have small working-age populations. However, the working-age population's share of total population in each region varies significantly. Urban regions tend to have a higher portion of population in the working-age group than more rural regions. Region 2 has the highest share of working-age individuals – 66.4 percent – while Region 7 (Coos and Curry counties) has the lowest portion – 58.8 percent.

Regional populations are not distributed evenly of course, and areas within a region grow at different rates. Businesses need to know where within a region population is growing so they can find employees and serve customers. Accordingly, it is useful to view population and growth at the Main Street level. Unlike at the regional level, however, non-population reasons can affect the estimates for cities and towns. Reasons such as annexations will cause an increase in the population estimate, even without anyone actually moving into the area. An example of a non-population related change in the estimates is the city of La Pine, Oregon. Located in Region 10, La Pine is the newest addition to the list of 242 incorporated cities and towns in Oregon. Incorporated at the beginning of 2007, La Pine boasts 1,590 residents.

Not only has the number of cities in Oregon grown since 2006, the population in most cities has grown as well. Total populations increased in 68 percent of the cities and towns. Total populations did not change in 25 percent of the cities and towns, while 7 percent saw their number of residents fall.

Nearly half of the state's population growth last year was concentrated in the 10 cities listed in Table 3. Portland added the most residents, 5,690, followed by Eugene with 5,095 and Hillsboro with 3,855 additional residents. Eugene's increase means it has replaced Salem as the second most populated city in the state.

Most cities experiencing rapid growth are located near Portland or scattered throughout the Willamette Valley. Table 4 compares the population growth rate of towns with more than 1,000 residents. King City grew the fastest at 14.9 percent, followed by Culver at 13.4 percent and Happy Valley at 12.7 percent. Happy Valley is the only city to make both top 10 lists. It added 1,170 residents to bring the cheerful dale's population up to 10,380.

Table 4 excludes smaller towns, where small changes in the number of residents will create volatile change rates. For those who are curious about extreme changes, the town of Shaniko in Wasco County had 20 people in 2006. The estimate increased to 40 people in 2007, an apparent growth rate of 100 percent! This does not mean that urban sprawl has claimed Shaniko just yet however. The increase was mostly due to a review and revision of the town's estimate, and not to a score of people moving in.

The state's population should continue to grow at about the same pace over the next five years. The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis gives population forecasts that expect an annual growth rate of 1.47 percent next year, with the rate decreasing in each subsequent year. Slightly more than two-thirds of future growth is expected to be through in-migration, the rest from births. According to these estimates, Oregon should reach the 4 million population mark within the next half-decade.

The complete lists of Oregon county and city population estimates are available on Portland State University's Web site at  www.pdx.edu/prc/. The Office of Economic Analysis's demographic forecast is available at  www.oea.das.state.or.us/DAS/OEA/.