OLMIS

by Jason J. Yohannan
Published Aug-5-2008

Introduction Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment Average Annual Pay Per Job Per Capita Personal Income Summary

This analysis examines long-term economic trends in nine Oregon counties around the Blue Mountains by way of a series of graphs that contrast a selected county's experience with the statewide pattern. Statistics considered here include total nonfarm payroll employment, average annual pay per job, and per capita personal income.

The graphs employ an indexing technique. The index base year is set at 1979, and that year's index value becomes 100. A future year's index value of, say, 175 means that that year's statistic was 75 percent higher than it was in 1979. Each graph herein presents paired indexes evaluating state and local trends on an equivalent basis.

Oregon's counties in the Blue Mountains region include Baker, Grant, Harney, Malheur, Morrow, Umatilla, Union, Wallowa, and Wheeler.

Extra care should be taken when reviewing Morrow County's graphs. Morrow County experienced extraordinarily high construction employment in 1979, thereby boosting job counts, average pay, and per capita income to unusually lofty levels that year. Because 1979 is the base year for all counties' indexes, it leads to some distortion in Morrow County's case.

Total nonfarm payroll employment is a standard unit of measure used by the federal government and all 50 states to track job counts by place of work. Nonfarm employment is the total number of persons who worked for or received pay from a nonfarm establishment during any part of the pay period that includes the 12^th of the month.

Oregon's total nonfarm payroll employment increased 63.9 percent from 1979 to 2007, reaching a record-high annual average level of 1,731,600 in 2007. Graphs 1-9 show how each Eastern Oregon county's job trend compares with the statewide experience. All nine counties lagged Oregon's job growth rate since 1979. Four of the nine counties didn't just lag the statewide growth rate – they actually had fewer nonfarm jobs in 2007 than in 1979.

The Oregon Employment Department develops average annual pay per job statistics from payroll tax reports submitted quarterly by employers covered under unemployment insurance laws. Most employees are covered, but notable exceptions including the self-employed, workers paid solely by commission, and some agricultural workers. Wages reported are pre-tax and include commissions, bonuses, vacation, and holiday pay, but do not include benefits. The average wage is the total of all covered wages paid during the year divided by the average number of covered workers for the year.

Oregon's average annual pay per job basically tripled in the period studied here, rising from $13,198 in 1979 to a preliminary estimate of $39,566 in 2007. Graphs 10-18 show how average wages in each county of the Blue Mountains region fared against that trend. None of the nine regional counties matched the statewide growth pace, though Umatilla County came close.

In the 1979 base year, average pay per job in Harney ($13,210) and Morrow ($15,892) counties actually exceeded the statewide figure ($13,198). They have since faded behind.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis calculates per capita personal income by estimating total personal income received by individuals and dividing by the population. Personal income statistics capture more than just paycheck dollars by including non-monetary sources of income such as Medicare and food stamps, but they do not include earned income that is not available to be spent by the earner, such as child support payments and Social Security tax.

The prior analyses of nonfarm job trends and average pay per job considered information through 2007. As of this writing, per capita personal income statistics at the county level are available only through 2006.

Oregon's per capita personal income more than tripled in the period studied here, rising from $9,309 in 1979 to $33,299 in 2006. Graphs 19-27 show how per capita personal income in each county of the Blue Mountains region fared against that trend. None of the nine regional counties matched the statewide growth pace, though all nine regional counties saw higher-than-average increases in per capita transfer payment income. Transfer payments include income from such sources as Social Security, Medicare, food stamps, unemployment compensation, and veterans benefits.

Since 1979, economic progress in the nine counties of Eastern Oregon most closely associated with the Blue Mountains has lagged the statewide pace. This examination of nonfarm employment, average pay, and per capita income shows that forward steps for these three economic indicators fell short of the Oregon trend in every case, in every county in the region.