OLMIS

by Nick Beleiciks
Published Oct-24-2008

Introduction Mixed Signals Help Wanted – by Industry Help Wanted – by Occupation Help Wanted – by Education Help Wanted – by Region Help Wanted – In the Future The Current Economy

Turbulent economic times can be stressful for employer and employee alike. Will the economy stay strong enough for your business to keep all its staff? If you were to lose your job, would there be another one available? But even when the stock market is crashing down on Wall Street, there is still a lot of work that needs to be done on Main Street. Crops still need to be harvested, people still need to be served at grocery stores and in restaurants, and busy hospitals are still looking for workers to care for their patients. This article shows where those job openings are.

Back in May 2008, good news was scarce when it came to economic indicators. Consumer prices were up 4.2 percent nationally since the same time last year, gasoline prices in Oregon were up about 10 percent, and the Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed that houses in Portland were selling for 5 percent less than the year before. On top of that, the University of Oregon's Index of Economic Indicators declined for a third consecutive month.

Despite the forlorn direction of these major economic indicators, one major indicator seemed calm, if not relatively cheery. Oregon's unemployment rate was at 5.6 percent, which was higher than the year before, but still much lower than what workers experienced the last time other economic indicators nosedived.

Part of the reason for the steady unemployment rate could have been that Oregon businesses were still hiring. In fact, employers across the state were looking to fill an estimated 47,888 job vacancies according to the Oregon Employment Department's first statewide survey of job vacancies. The department asked over 10,600 businesses and local governments around the state if they were hiring. If they were, details were asked about the vacant position, such as the position's occupation, starting wage, and required level of education.

The vacancy survey results showed that, even when the economy is scaling back, there are some employers that struggle to find enough qualified help and job opportunities exist for workers who have the right training or skills.

Health care and social assistance was, by far, the industry most in need of finding qualified workers (Table 1). The industry had 10,242 vacancies at the time – more than one in five of the state's total job vacancies. Three-fifths of this industry's vacancies required education beyond the high school level and three-fourths of the vacancies required a license or certificate.

Accommodation and food services was the industry with the second largest need for workers, with 6,037 vacancies. In contrast to the health care and social assistance industry, though, only 2 percent of accommodation and food services vacancies required education beyond high school. A large percentage (61%), however, required a license or certificate. Examples of license or certificate requirements: commercial driver's license (CDL), cosmetologist, licensed practical nurse, and Oregon food handler's card.

It is no surprise that health care and social assistance and accommodation and food services are the top two industries by number of job vacancies; they are also two of the fastest growing industries in Oregon. The same can be said about other fast growing industries such as retail trade and educational services, which had 4,316 and 4,001 vacancies, respectively.

A couple industries had a large number of job vacancies even though they have not been growing rapidly. The agriculture, forestry, and fishing industry had 4,263 vacancies. The timing of the survey – the middle of spring – had a lot to do with the number of agricultural employers looking to get help for the upcoming season. If the survey were held in a month like January, when agricultural employment is at the lowest level of the year, the industry would probably fall near the bottom of Table 1. Few of the vacancies in agriculture, forestry, and fishing required education beyond high school or a license.

Manufacturing was an industry facing an overall decline in total employment but still needing to hire new workers. Manufacturing had 3,135 job vacancies in May even though the industry's total employment was significantly lower than last year. These findings suggest that employers can have difficultly finding enough workers even while their industry as a whole is shedding workers.

Oregon employers had vacancies for over 500 different occupations representing everything from accountants to writers. Across all occupations, 20 percent of the vacancies had been open for at least 60 days or were open continuously. This suggests that employers were having difficulty filling one position for every five that were vacant. Table 2 shows the 20 occupations that had the most vacancies and what share of the vacancies had been open for at least 60 days.

Registered nurses had the most vacancies of any occupation. There were 2,838 vacancies and 20 percent of these had been open at least two months. Farmworkers and laborers were also in high demand with 2,411 vacancies. Very few of these vacancies were open for more than 60 days or were open continuously, which along with the time of year and the nature of farm work suggests that these openings were for seasonal positions.

Many of the occupations in high demand are found in retail or food service, such as retail salespersons, waiters and waitresses, cashiers, packers and packagers, and cooks. Of these occupations, only retail salespersons had a higher-than-average share of vacancies open longer than 60 days.

Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants – an occupation commonly found in nursing and community care facilities and hospitals – had 1,057 vacancies, and 42 percent were open longer than 60 days. Customer service representatives and laborers and freight movers rounded out the top 10 occupations. Well over half of the laborers and freight movers' vacancies had been hard to fill.

Employers are generally looking for workers with on-the-job experience to fill their vacancies. The survey found that 61 percent of all vacancies required someone with previous work experience. That compares with 34 percent requiring someone with education beyond high school.

Of the 20 occupations with the most vacancies in Table 2, only four are likely to require a college degree: registered nurses, computer software engineers, secondary school teachers, and general managers.

For most vacancies in Oregon, a college education is not necessary (Table 3). In fact, of the job vacancies that included some information about educational requirements, 39 percent explicitly stated "No Requirement" for education level. However, only a little more than half of these vacancies were for full-time or permanent positions. Vacancies requiring a high school diploma (20%) were more likely to be full-time or permanent positions. The odds get even better for a vacancy to be a full-time or permanent position if college is a requirement.

In addition to the higher probability of being full-time or permanent positions, job vacancies with higher educational requirements also pay more. Not all the job vacancies included the starting wage that was being offered, but of those that did, 29 percent offered $15 per hour or more. Over three-quarters of the vacancies offering $15 an hour or more were for jobs requiring education beyond high school.

Graph 1 shows how the connection between education and higher-paying vacancies is even stronger in the $25 an hour and over categories. More than 90 percent of vacancies at or above $25 an hour required more than a high-school education.

Still, fresh college graduates should be forewarned: a degree in hand may be a necessary condition for most high-paying job vacancies, but it's not always sufficient. Of the vacancies offering $30 per hour and up, 96 percent were asking for candidates with previous work experience.

The survey also covered the number of job vacancies by region. Summary data are shown in Table 4. Roughly half of Oregon's job vacancies were in the Portland Metro area, an area that holds roughly half of the state's total employment.

The job vacancy rate, the ratio of the number of vacancies to the number of filled jobs, was 3.0 percent statewide. Vacancy rates were lower in Portland and in Southern Oregon. The Central Oregon/Columbia Gorge region had the highest vacancy rate at 4.7 percent.

The share of vacancies open longer than two months or open continuously was higher than average in Eastern Oregon, Portland, and the Willamette Valley. A vacancy open for this long is an indicator that the employer is having a difficult time finding qualified workers. Employers looking for help during the upcoming harvest or tourist season had just started their hiring during this survey, so their positions had not been open long. This had the effect of lowering the percent of vacancies open over 60 days in regions with a high percentage of seasonal vacancies, like in Central Oregon/Columbia Gorge and on the Oregon Coast. Eastern Oregon's high percentage of vacancies open 60-plus days reflected a small percentage of vacancies for seasonal jobs.

The level of education needed for job vacancies varied significantly by region. This, too, could have a lot to do with the occupational mix of the vacancies at the time of the survey. In the Portland area, where 43 percent of vacancies required education beyond high school, the occupation with the most vacancies was registered nurses. RNs, who need an Associate Degree to become licensed, accounted for 7 percent of all vacancies. By contrast, in the Central Oregon/Columbia Gorge region, where only 17 percent of vacancies required education beyond high school, farmworkers and laborers had the most vacancies. Farm work vacancies, which typically do not require a postsecondary education, accounted for nearly 22 percent of vacancies in the region.

How can a survey of job vacancies in May tell us what types of job vacancies will be available in the future? Well it can't, but fortunately there is a resource that can provide some guidance. Every other year, the Oregon Employment Department releases 10-year employment projections by occupation. Occupations that have a large number of projected openings, either because of job growth or replacement needs, are likely to also have a large number of vacancies. In fact, the job vacancy survey results show that many of the occupations with the most vacancies were also the occupations with the most projected openings.

Table 5 shows the top 20 occupations by projected annual openings from the latest projections. More information about projected employment can be found on www.QualityInfo.org by selecting the ‘Publications' page and clicking on Employment Projections by Occupation and Industry, 2006-2016 in the Data section.

There is no doubt that the state's economic outlook is gloomier now than it was back in May. Some employers have cut their workforce and are putting off hiring new workers, meaning reduced demand in the job market. The following key points should be kept in mind:

• Six of the top seven industries by number of vacancies, which together provided nearly two-thirds of May's vacancies, each added jobs over the summer.
  
  
• Occupations that have a long-term shortage of workers, like registered nurses and nursing aides, are still likely to have vacancies even in a slow economy.
  
  
• Relevant education and experience remain key to qualifying for higher-paying positions, and employers need workers to fill those positions.
  
  
• Although the majority of vacancies are located around Portland, vacancies exist in all regions, and employers in some regions are having a tougher time finding enough workers.

In other words, there is still a lot of work that needs to be done in Oregon.

Job vacancy reports are available for the following regions:

Central Oregon/Columbia Gorge (Crook, Deschutes, Gilliam, Hood River, Jefferson, Klamath, Lake, Sherman, Wasco, and Wheeler counties)

Eastern Oregon (Baker, Grant, Harney, Malheur, Morrow, Umatilla, Union, and Wallowa counties)

Oregon Coast (Clatsop, Coos, Curry, Lincoln, and Tillamook counties)

Portland Metro Area (Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, and Yamhill counties in Oregon, plus Clark County in Washington)

Southern Oregon (Douglas, Jackson, and Josephine counties)

Willamette Valley (Benton, Lane, Linn, Marion, and Polk counties)

Oregon statewide

Reports are available at  www.QualityInfo.org on the ‘Publications' page under ‘Reports & Analysis'