Labor Force Participation Can Be a Bumpy Ride
September 14, 2020 Eastern Oregon’s labor force participation rate dipped by 0.5 percentage point in 2019, decreasing to 60.0 percent. Seven counties in the region saw a decrease in the participation rate over the year. Grant County was the lone county in the region to see an increase, rising 0.5 percentage point to 52.6 percent. Participation dropped in 31 Oregon counties, as well as the state overall. Labor force participation was steady in one county and increased in four. The long-term trend for Eastern Oregon is a slow, bumpy road downhill, as seen in the accompanying chart.
Population dynamics and the timing of regional recovery may explain this counterintuitive behavior. While the 2001 recession was short, officially ending in November of the same year, Eastern Oregon saw employment decrease from 2002 until 2005. The region then added employment again until the Great Recession hit in 2007. Officially, the Great Recession ended in June 2009, but employment in Eastern Oregon didn’t bottom out until January 2010. Employment was roughly flat thereafter, until 2015 when the region finally started to turn up the heat on economic recovery. Growth in the civilian noninstitutionalized population was steady from 2001 to 2009, which suggests that new participants were moving into Eastern Oregon during both recessions and adding to the region’s labor market while the economy was still struggling. In addition, labor force growth likely ramped up as well in the region as family members who normally choose not to work entered the labor force to compensate for family members who lost jobs or saw work hours cut. Given these factors and allowing for a certain degree of lag, labor force participation tracks roughly with the timing of employment gains, losses, and stagnation in Eastern Oregon.


Although Eastern Oregon has a slightly lower labor force participation rate than Oregon overall, the regional and statewide trends have been in line since 2011. The trend continues downward as an aging population drags on the region’s participation rates. In Eastern Oregon, the long-term trend is a slow descent along a bumpy road.