Lane County 2017 to 2027 Employment Forecast by Industry

by Brian Rooney

July 12, 2018

The 2017 to 2027 Lane County employment projections show overall growth, although at a slower pace than the 2017 increase of 1.7 percent. As the economic expansion matures, the likelihood of slower growth increases. However, some industries are expected to continue rapid growth during the 10-year period including health care, construction, and professional and business services.

Lane County will add 19,300 jobs between 2017 and 2027 for an 11 percent increase in employment over 10 years. This is lower than the statewide increase of 12 percent over the same period. The growth stems from anticipated private-sector gains of 16,700 jobs (13%) and the addition of 1,500 jobs (5%) in government. The projected percent growth rate exceeds the 1.2 percent growth seen over the past decade, but is less than the 25 percent average decadal growth rate going back to 1958.
Central Oregon has the strongest growth rate at 15 percent while the Portland area will grow 13 percent. Other areas of the state are anticipated to grow at about the same rate or slower compared with Lane County.

Some Lane County highlights include:

  • Health care and social assistance adds the most jobs (4,600 jobs, +18%) due to a growing and aging population.
  • Construction grows the fastest (25%, +1,700 jobs). It is expected to reach its prerecession annual average peak of 8,200 late in the forecast period.
  • Information grows slowly, adding 200 jobs (+7%) as growth in software publishing combines with losses in print publishing.
  • Professional and business services adds 2,600 jobs (+15%). Although we expect a major portion of this growth to come from continued growth in temporary help firms and call centers, their growth should be slower than in the past. More rapid growth is expected to come from professional services like engineering, computer systems design, and administrative offices.
  • Leisure and hospitality will add 2,400 jobs (+14%) from tourism and retirees.
  • Manufacturing grows by 1,600 jobs (+12%). Durable goods manufacturing grows with the additions in transportation equipment (Arcimoto) early in the forecast. Nondurable goods manufacturing grows, adding 700 jobs (+14%), largely from food and beverage manufacturing.
  • Federal government loses 100 jobs (-6%) due to small losses in the postal service and other federal employment.

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