Lane County Jobs Projected to Increase 12% by 2031
February 16, 2023Lane County’s total employment will grow by 20,400 jobs between 2021 and 2031, according to new projections from the Oregon Employment Department. The projections point to modest structural job growth between 2021 and 2031 and accounts for recovery from low employment levels in 2021 amid the recovery from the COVID-19 recession. In addition, many job openings are expected due to the need to replace workers who leave their occupations.
In 2021, there were 165,500 jobs in Lane County. The 12% increase in employment between 2021 and 2031 includes private-sector gains of 18,100 jobs, 2,000 jobs in government, and an additional 300 job gain in self-employed Lane County residents.
Almost All Industries Add Jobs
All major industry sectors are expected to add jobs except federal government, which has no change over the 10-year period. Leisure and hospitality is projected to increase the fastest and add the most jobs. The projected 4,800 jobs (32% growth) in leisure and hospitality is largely driven by recovery from pandemic losses, as restaurants, hotels and arts, cultural, and recreational establishments continue to see increased demand as in-person and recreational activities resume.
The private health care and social assistance sector is projected to add the second-largest number of jobs, gaining 4,600 jobs (17% growth) over the 10-year period. This growth is attributed to the aging of the state’s population, longer life expectancies, and continued population growth. In addition, Lane County has become a regional health care center, serving people from outside the county. Health care alone will account for over one out of five new jobs created by 2031.
Trade, transportation, and utilities is a large industry sector that is projected to grow by 2,500 jobs (9%) due to a recovery from the COVID-19 recession in retail trade and demand for transportation services as more people shop online and need products delivered.
Peak Employment
While overall employment and jobs in many sectors are expected to grow beyond their recent peak levels, some sectors will fall short of their peak employment by 2031. Manufacturing employment is expected to grow by 8% to 15,500 jobs. That is well below its most recent peak of 20,300 jobs in 2006.
The information sector is projected to add 100 jobs and grow to 1,900, about 2,100 jobs below its last peak in 2007.
Both of these below-peak sectors consist of different component industries growing in notably different ways. Some components of manufacturing – such as overall durable goods (8%) – show higher projected growth rates. Meanwhile, the relatively larger wood product manufacturing (3%) is projected to have slower growth by 2031.
In the information sector, growth in the software publishing industry will be countered by losses in print publishing and media.
Government
Projections show relatively modest growth in government (7%). Federal government is expected to have no change. State government is expected to add 200 jobs (11%) partly from growth at the state hospital in Junction City. Local government will add 1,800 jobs (8%) largely from gains in education as local schools and the University of Oregon continue to recover from COVID-19 losses.
All Industries Need Workers
Beyond gains associated with structural growth and recovery from the COVID-19 recession, all broad industry sectors will provide employment opportunities. Many job openings will be created by 2031 due to the need to replace workers who retire, leave the labor force for other reasons, or make a major occupational change.
More information on 2021-2031 industry and occupational projections for Oregon and sub-state areas can be found at QualityInfo.org/projections.