Lane County Jobs Projected to Increase 15% by 2030November 23, 2021
Lane County’s total employment will grow by 23,900 jobs between 2020 and 2030, according to new projections from the Oregon Employment Department. The projections point to strong job growth between 2020 and 2030 and accounts for recovery from low employment levels in 2020 from the COVID-19 recession. In addition, many job openings are expected due to the need to replace workers who leave their occupations.
In 2020, there were 162,100 jobs in Lane County. The 15% increase in employment between 2020 and 2030 includes private-sector gains of 21,200 jobs, 2,200 jobs in government, and an additional 500 gain in jobs for self-employed Lane County residents.
Almost All Industries Add Jobs
All major industry sectors are expected to add jobs except federal government, which loses 100 over the 10-year period. Leisure and hospitality is projected to increase the fastest and add the most jobs. The projected 6,100 jobs (44% growth) in leisure and hospitality is mainly driven by the recovery from the pandemic, as restaurants, hotels and arts, cultural, and recreational establishments are expected to see increased demand as in-person and recreational activities resume.
The private health care and social assistance sector is projected to add the second-largest number of jobs, gaining 4,700 jobs (18% growth) over the 10-year period. This growth is attributed to the aging of the state’s population, longer life expectancies, and continued population growth. In addition, the county has become a regional health care center serving people from outside the county. Health care alone will account for nearly one out of five new jobs created by 2030.
Trade, transportation, and utilities is a large industry sector that is projected to grow by 3,200 jobs (11%) due to a recovery from the COVID-19 recession in retail trade and demand for transportation services as more people shop online and need products delivered.
Projections show relatively modest growth in government. Federal government is expected to lose 100 jobs (-5%). State government is expected to add 200 jobs (12%) partly from growth at the state hospital in Junction City. Local government will add 2,100 jobs (9%), largely from gains in education as local schools and the University of Oregon reopen after the COVID-19 crisis.
All Industries Need Workers
Beyond gains associated with the economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession and anticipated economic growth, another 180,400 job openings will be created by 2030 to replace workers who retire, leave the labor force for other reasons, or make a major occupational change. Together, the number of job openings due to economic recovery, job growth, and replacements will total 204,500.
More information on 2020-2030 industry and occupational projections for Oregon and sub-state areas can be found at QualityInfo.org/projections.