Oregon Dairy Production Rises to Peak as Milk Prices Reach Five-Year HighMarch 9, 2020
Dairy has a long tradition in Oregon. Many of Oregon’s early pioneers were dairy farmers and manufacturers. Oregon dairy products are recognized worldwide for their high quality and employment is growing as a result. Dairy farmers and manufacturers provide jobs throughout the state. Dairy farms in Oregon were historically small, often employing a family and a few other individuals, but recent trends show dairy farms are getting bigger. Their primary product is milk, the official beverage of the state of Oregon. The milk is sold to dairy manufacturers who then sell the milk or use it to make cheese, butter, yogurt, ice cream, and other dairy products. Dairy manufacturers usually employ more people than dairy farms and are less numerous. Together, they comprise what we generally refer to as the dairy industry in Oregon.
The dairy industry, like other agricultural and manufacturing industries, has undergone significant changes since the late 19th century. Consolidation, technology, mechanization, and increased competition changed Oregon’s dairy industry. Today, dairy is still thriving thanks to strong demand for its distinct, high-quality products.
Production and Value
Rising milk prices lifted Oregon’s sales to a record $650 million in 2014. Milk production reached 2,550 million pounds in 2014, a slight gain of 1.4 percent over 2013. The value of milk sales, however, climbed nearly 23 percent in 2014, an increase of $122 million over 2013’s $528 million.
Milk production held steady in 2015 then rose by 1.6 percent in 2016 to 2,593 million pounds. Despite record production, the value of sales fell to $465 million in 2016, a loss of 1.6 percent over 2015 and its lowest total since 2010’s $412 million. Milk production fell by 2.5 percent in 2017 to 2,529 million pounds although sales rose by 6.7 percent or $31.1 million to $496.6 million. Milk production held steady in 2018 then rose to a new peak, at 2,964 million pounds in 2019, an increase of 63 million pounds or 2.5 percent. And thanks to a five-year high for milk prices, the value of production rose to $552 million, up $78.4 million over 2018 (+16.6%).
Volatile Milk Prices
As the Great Recession took hold, milk prices fell dramatically, demand for dairy products decreased rapidly and exports slowed. Milk prices fell by 18.4 percent over the year ending in July 2009 and continued to drop, with a recovery beginning to take hold in March 2010 with prices rising by 2.9 percent over the year. Cheese prices fell by 10.8 percent over the year ending in August 2009, turning the corner in May 2010 with a gain of 1.0 percent. Consumer prices for ice cream and other dairy products were far less volatile than the price trends experienced by milk and cheese, at least on the downhill side.
To help the struggling dairy industry through the recession, the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced in August 2009 a temporary increase in prices paid for dairy products through the Dairy Product Price Support Program. This program essentially sets a price floor for butter, cheddar cheese, and nonfat dry milk for dairy manufacturers in the U.S. If the price of these dairy goods drops to specified levels, manufacturers can sell their goods in bulk to the government. USDA also took other steps to help the dairy industry in the recession, including the reduction of dry milk inventories and reactivation of the Dairy Export Incentive Program, which helps U.S. dairy exporters meet prevailing world prices in markets where U.S. dairy products are not competitive due to subsidized dairy products from other countries.
Milk prices recovered by March 2014 but that improvement would be short lived, hitting a new peak in May 2014, just 3.4 percent higher than its previous peak, reach in July 2008. The cycle of falling milk prices continued and worsened over the next four years, hitting bottom in March 2018, down about 23 percent. Milk prices improved only slightly in 2018, contributing to an over-the-year increase of just 2.7 percent by March 2019. Milk prices continued on a path of slow recorvery in 2019 but by January 2020 remained about 13 percent below peak.
In Oregon, milk prices received by dairy farmers averaged $21.40 per 100 pounds of milk in 2011, $3.10 above 2008’s average and a far cry from the $13.70 farmers received in 2009. Milk prices received by Oregon farmers rose to a record $25.70 in 2014 – but that peak was short lived, falling to just $18.60 in 2015, a loss of $7.10 or nearly 28 percent per 100 pounds. Milk prices rebounded somewhat in 2017, rising to $19.80 per 100 pounds, 23 percent below its 2014 peak. Rising milk prices returned again to the market in 2019, producing a five-year high for Oregon dairy farmers at $21.30 per 100 pounds, an increase of $2.60 or nearly 14 percent over 2018’s $18.70.
U.S. Dairy Export Trade Data
According to the U.S. Dairy Export Council, U.S. dairy exports surpassed $6.0 billion in 2019, an increase of 8 percent from the prior year but still significantly below 2014 which brought in a record $7.2 billion. On the bright side, U.S. dairy export value rose by 25 percent over the past three years. Milk exports represented 14.5 percent of total U.S. production in 2019, down from 15.7 percent in 2018.
Nonfat dry milk and skimmed milk powder exports (NDM/SMP) fell slightly in 2019, down 2 percent to 700,930 tons. European sales improved dramatically starting in September, with volume rising by 29 percent through December. NDM/SMP is typically consumed elsewhere, with 65 percent of U.S. production exported in 2019.
The U.S. exported 6 percent of its cheese production in 2019, shipping 357,910 tons, an increase of 3 percent over 2018 and a five-year high. Total whey exports fell by 18 percent in 2019, dropping to 447,950 tons. Volume to China dropped by half in 2019, down 100,597 tons. Whey protein isolate exports were the exception, rising to a record 46,947 tons in 2019, an increase of 11 percent over 2018.
Dairy Product Manufacturing in Oregon
Dairy product manufacturers add value to dairy farm production – processing raw milk into fluid milk, butter, cheese, ice cream, and condensed dairy products. Dairy manufacturing followed a trend of moderate but steady growth over 2000 to 2010, gaining about 640 jobs to average around 2,520. Dairy product manufacturing rose by 34.1 percent or 3.4 percent annually from 2000 to 2010. Employment reached a peak of 2,620 jobs in 2014, gaining around 100 jobs. But a change in industry code cost dairy product manufacturing about 500 jobs in 2015. Employment averaged 2,390 jobs over the first nine months of 2019, an increase of about 200 jobs since 2015 – but about 230 jobs shy of dairy manufacturing’s 2014 peak.
Oregon dairy product manufacturing includes dairy products (excluding frozen), which averaged nearly 1,800 jobs in 2019 (January–September) and ice cream and frozen desserts, which averaged 600.
Dairy product manufacturing payroll grew to $124.4 million in 2018, an increase of $2.3 million or 1.9 percent over 2017. Ice cream and frozen dessert manufacturing wages averaged $46,279 in 2018, an increase of 3.6 percent over 2017. Dairy product manufacturing (excluding frozen) earned higher average wages, at $54,911, but wage growth has been unsteady, falling by 1.3 percent in 2018.
Oregon’s manufacturing industry paid an average $70,652 in 2018 – although food manufacturing paid less, at $42,012. Scooped or poured, dairy manufacturing paid above average wages when compared with the food manufacturing industry group.
Americans Drinking Less Milk but Consuming More Dairy Products
Data from USDA show that per capita fluid milk consumption in the United States steadily declined between 1975 and 2018. Per capita milk consumption fell to 146 pounds in 2018, about 41 percent less than 1975’s 247 pounds. Why the decline? Competition from other beverages, including carbonated soft drinks. Despite the steady decline in fluid milk consumption, dairy products as a whole have generally enjoyed steady growth, led by consumption of yogurt and cheese in particular. Between 1975 and 2018, average annual cheese consumption rose by 167 percent from 14.3 pounds per person to 38.2 pounds. Dairy product manufacturing (except frozen) provided about 77 percent of Oregon’s dairy manufacturing jobs in 2018, so the consumption trends of milk and cheese are very important.
Cheddar cheese consumption per capita increased 79 percent between 1970 and 2018, from a little less than six pounds per person to 11.2 pounds. Mozzarella cheese consumption per capita surpassed cheddar in 2007 and its popularity has continued to grow. Back in 1970 mozzarella cheese consumption averaged just 1.19 pounds per capita. By 2018, mozzarella cheese consumption grew to 12.2 pounds per capita. Based on consumption trends, there’s good reason to believe cheese producers, and the dairies that provide them with milk, will continue to see growth in the future.
Processed cheese and other cheese product consumption reached a plateau in 1996, but these products have enjoyed a resurgence in recent years, regaining some of that 90s luster. In 1996, Americans consumed nearly 8.8 pounds of processed cheese and other cheese products per capita. Processed cheese and other cheese product consumption fell during the Great Recession, bottoming out at 6.4 pounds per capita in 2013. Consumption bounced back to more than 7.3 pounds per capita in 2014 and 2015, while settling to about 7.1 pounds per capita in 2018. Processed cheese and other cheese product consumption per capita remains about 1.7 pounds below its grunge-era glory days.
Dairy Farming in Oregon – Employment and Payroll
Dairy farm employment held relatively steady in 2019, averaging nearly 1,600 jobs over January–September, just below its 2016 peak. Over the past 19 years (going back to 2000), dairy farm employment grew by close to 700 jobs or about 77 percent. The average Oregon dairy farm provided 12 jobs in 2019, with 129 employer units (with employment).
From a regional perspective, the Willamette Valley dominated dairy employment back in 2000, with 533 jobs or nearly 60 percent of Oregon’s total. The Willamette Valley hit its peak employment level in 2008, with just over 700 jobs. Over time, a more balanced regional employment picture emerged, with the Willamette Valley holding 570 jobs or 36 percent of the state total in 2019. The Coastal district more than doubled its total from 215 jobs in 2000 to 550 jobs in 2019, accounting for 35 percent of Oregon dairy employment. The balance of state represented just 17 percent of Oregon’s dairy farm employment in 2000 with about 150 jobs, growing to about 470 dairy jobs or 29 percent of Oregon’s total by 2019. More significant, the balance of state region accounted for 46 percent of Oregon’s dairy farm employment growth since 2000. The Coastal region represented 49 percent of Oregon’s growth since 2000.
Along with new jobs, dairy industry payrolls grew to $62.6 million in 2018 and annual pay averaged $38,070. Dairy industry workers in the Willamette Valley district earned just above Oregon’s average pay, at $38,915. The Coastal district paid an average of $34,882 in 2018, below Oregon’s average, while the balance of state rose to the top, averaging $44,093.
Fewer but Larger Dairy Farms
Historically in the U.S., small, family owned dairy farms with less than 100 cattle led milk production. Since the 1970s, large farms with over 1,000 cattle have become much more commonplace, displacing or purchasing smaller farms. Large farms are able to produce milk at a lower cost than smaller farms. As a result, productivity in the industry has risen, putting downward pressure on dairy prices. This is great for consumers, but difficult for small farms that face tough competition from larger farms.
The trend toward larger farms intensified in the 1990s. According to the USDA, in 1992, about half of all dairy cows were on dairy farms with fewer than 100 head, approximately 135,000. By 2006, there were about 58,000 dairy farms left with fewer than 100 cows, accounting for less than 25 percent of the U.S. dairy herd.
The average size of an Oregon dairy mirrored that of the U.S. between 1974 and 2002. In 1974, Oregon dairy farms averaged 21 cows with about 88,000 head and over 4,200 farms. By 2002, the average Oregon dairy reached 103 cows. The U.S. average in 2002 was similar at 99 cows per farm. But things changed significantly in Oregon between 2002 and 2007. The average size of an Oregon dairy nearly doubled in the five years between 2002 and 2007. The size of Oregon’s dairy herd continued to grow and, according to the Census of Agriculture, reached 125,767 cows in 2012.
Grade A Oregon licensed dairies, which exclude non-commercial dairies, raw milk producers and other animal milk producers (i.e. goats), highlight the trend of dairy industry consolidation. Back in 1990, there were 520 Grade A dairy farms operating in Oregon, by 1997 the total had fallen to 363, a drop of 30 percent. Over the next decade, the number of Grade A dairy farms operating in Oregon fell to 289, a loss of about 20 percent or one out of five daries. And 10 years later, in 2017, the number of Grade A dairy farms operating in Oregon fell to just 228, a 21 percent decline since 2007. Grade A dairy operations in Oregon fell to an even 200 in 2020.
One dairy community that has tried to maintain its identity as a small farm community is Tillamook. Even so, there are fewer farms today than there used to be. Richard Obrist, Tillamook dairy farmer and member of the Oregon Dairy Farmers’ Association, said the Tillamook County Creamery Association (TCCA) used to have over 500 members in the 1950s. “In the past, family farms were passed down from generation to generation,” said Obrist. “If there wasn’t a family member to take on the farm, many of those farmers retired when they could no longer operate the farm.”
Obrist said the cooperative structure of the TCCA has been crucial to the survival and success of small farms in Tillamook. “If it wasn’t in place, the farmer would not only have to run the farm, they’d be responsible for marketing and selling the product,” states Obrist. “The co-op also does a great job of working with the farmers to help them overcome issues that affect the quality of their milk.” Today the farmer-owned co-op includes nearly 100 farmer families with many farming in Tillamook County for multiple generations. The TCCA celebrated its 105th anniversary in 2014, making dairy products for over a century.
In Boardman, the face of dairy looks a little different. Boardman is located in Morrow County along the Columbia River. In 2001, the TCCA built a new cheese factory in Boardman. Tillamook area farmers couldn’t keep up with the TCCA’s demand for milk, so another source was critical to the expansion of the creamery. Unlike the home factory in Tillamook, the Boardman plant does not depend on lots of small farms to supply it milk. It depends on larger ones, including Threemile Canyon Farms.
Milk prices reached a five-year high in 2019. Dairy farm employment in Oregon fell slightly between 2016 and 2019, while dairy product manufacturing rose by about 3 percent. There are fewer Grade A dairy farms operating in Oregon today – but milk production has increased with the emergence of mega daries.
Dairy manufacturers continue to produce high quality dairy products, from the award winning bleu cheeses of Rogue Creamery to the fresh, delicious milk at your local grocery store. They also provide good paying jobs throughout the state, in urban and rural areas.