Oregon Jobs Projected to Increase 16% by 2030

by Felicia Bechtoldt

November 22, 2021

Oregon’s total employment will grow by 317,600 jobs between 2020 and 2030, according to new projections from the Oregon Employment Department. The projections point to historically high job growth between 2020 and 2030 and account for recovery from low employment levels in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated recession. In addition, many job openings are expected due to the need to replace workers who leave their occupations.

In 2020, there were 1,998,400 jobs in Oregon. The projected 16% increase in employment between 2020 and 2030 includes private-sector gains of 283,500 jobs, growth of 25,700 jobs in government, and an additional 8,300 self-employed Oregonians.

Sectors Hit by the Pandemic Projected to Grow Faster

Leisure and hospitality is projected to increase the fastest and add the largest number of jobs. The projected gain of 73,800 jobs (46% growth) in leisure and hospitality is mainly driven by the recovery from the pandemic, as restaurants, hotels, and arts, cultural, and recreational establishments are expected to see increased demand as in-person and recreational activities resume. Leisure and hospitality lost 51,700 jobs in 2020 relative to 2019. Therefore, seven out of 10 jobs that are projected to be added in the next 10 years in leisure and hospitality will replace the jobs lost in 2020. By comparison, in the last set of projections, leisure and hospitality was ranked the fourth fastest-growing sector.

Other services is projected to be the second fastest-growing sector with a 20% growth rate. Despite its fast growth, other services is a relatively small sector and is expected to add only 12,200 jobs. Other services include beauty salons, barber shops, laundries and drycleaners, religious organizations, and parking lots and garages. This sector was greatly affected by the pandemic, losing 7,200 jobs in 2020. Therefore six out of 10 jobs that are projected to be added in the next 10 years in other services will replace the jobs lost in 2020. In the last set of projections, other services was ranked the 11th fastest growing.
Private health care and social assistance sector and professional and business services are projected to be the third fastest-growing sectors (19% growth) and are expected to add the second- and third-largest number of jobs, respectively. There may be little surprise seeing health care and professional and business services among the top sectors adding jobs, as they are two of the largest sectors in the state.

Private health and social assistance is projected to add 51,000 jobs in the next 10 years. This growth is attributed to the aging of the state’s population, longer life expectancies, and continued population growth. Within health care and social assistance, ambulatory health care services (24% growth), such as doctor and dentist offices, chiropractors, physical and speech therapists, and other specialists, and social assistance (21% growth) that includes individual and family services and child day care services are expected to grow much faster than hospitals (10% growth).

Professional and business services is projected to add 45,800 additional jobs in 2030. The growth in this sector will be driven by gains in management of companies and enterprises (+9,500 jobs), employment services (+8,700 jobs), management, scientific, and technical consulting services (+5,000 jobs), and services to buildings and dwellings (+4,600 jobs). Management of companies and enterprises includes corporate offices headquartered in Oregon.

Peak Employment

While overall employment in many sectors is expected to grow beyond their peak levels, some sectors will fall short of their peak employment by 2030. Manufacturing employment is expected to grow by 11% to 205,900 jobs. That's below its most recent peak of 207,300 jobs in 2006. Its all-time high was 228,600 jobs in 1998. In 2020, manufacturing lost 6% of its jobs (-12,700 jobs).

Information sector employment is projected to grow by 5,100 jobs to 38,200, about 1,500 jobs below its last peak in 2001. In 2020, information lost 5% of its jobs (-1,800 jobs).

Both manufacturing and information consist of industries growing in notably different ways. Some smaller components of manufacturing – such as transportation equipment manufacturing (23%) and primary metal manufacturing (16%) – show higher projected growth rates. In 2020, transportation equipment manufacturing lost 13% of its jobs (-1,700 jobs) and primary metal manufacturing lost 17% of its jobs (-1,600 jobs). Meanwhile, paper manufacturing (-5%) and sawmills and wood preservation (-2%) show projected declines by 2030. Both paper manufacturing and sawmills and wood preservation had stable employment in 2020. Paper manufacturing includes pulp, paper, and paperboard mills and converted paper product manufacturing.
One portion of the information sector consists of the growing software publishing industry, with projected growth of 19% by 2030. The motion picture and video industry is projected to recover the jobs lost during the pandemic. This industry lost nearly half of its jobs in 2020 and is expected to add 2,500 jobs (97% growth) by 2030. That’s quite a contrast from projected growth in the other information-related industries. Newspaper, book, and directory publishers can expect job losses totaling 700 jobs (-27%). Telecommunications are projected to lose 700 jobs as well (-14%).

Declining Industries

Several industry groups with the biggest projected losses relate to news media, production and distribution of various paper-related products, and retail trade. These include computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing (-21%); radio and television broadcasting (-17%); printing (-13%); pulp, paper, and paperboard mills (-7%); and electronics and appliance stores (-5%).

Government

Projections show relatively modest growth in all broad areas of government. Federal government should continue to grow (1%), largely due to federal postal employment gains (4%). State government is expected to grow 8% and local government is expected to grow 11%.

All Industries Need Workers

Whether growing rapidly or showing a net loss of jobs by 2030, all broad industries provide employment opportunities to Oregonians. The demand is clear in some industries. Together leisure and hospitality, health care, and professional and business services will account for more than half of all new jobs in the state. Slower growing sectors and declining industries still offer many job opportunities though, as there is a need to replace retiring workers or others leaving the industry.

More information on 2020-2030 industry and occupational projections for Oregon and sub-state areas can be found at QualityInfo.org/projections.


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