Oregon’s Labor Force in 2025December 28, 2016 In the future, Oregon’s labor force will consist mostly of people who are already in the labor force. Roughly 84 percent of Oregon’s current labor force will still be in the labor force in the year 2025. The remainder of the future labor force will consist of new or returning entrants into the labor force. Those new entrants are most likely today’s current students, or workers who will move to Oregon from other places.
Oregon’s labor force is projected to increase by one-quarter of a million workers during the 2015 to 2025 timeframe. That’s a lot of new workers, but considering that Oregon already has a labor force of two million, it’s clear that most of Oregon’s future workers are already in the labor force.
The size of the future workforce is based on the expected net movements of workers into and out of the workforce, and the forecast of Oregon’s population growth by age group. From 2015 to 2025, projected change will result from three types of workers:
Entrants – those who were not in the labor force in 2015, but will enter at some point during the 2015 to 2025 period, and continue to be part of the labor force in 2025.
Leavers – those who were in the labor force in 2015, but will leave at some point during the 2015 to 2025 period, and will no longer be in the labor force by 2025.
Stayers – those who were in the labor force in 2015 and will remain through 2025.
Once all entrants, leavers, and stayers have made their moves, 75 percent of Oregon’s labor force in 2025 will consist of people already in the Oregon labor force in 2015.
Between 2015 and 2025, 574,000 workers will enter Oregon’s labor force and 324,000 workers will leave. These figures compare with 444,000 entrants and 316,000 leavers from 2005 to 2015. The number of entrants into Oregon’s labor force is therefore expected to be 130,000 more than in the previous decade. The number of people leaving the labor force is expected to be 8,000 more.
About These Projections
This approach to labor force projections is based on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics article Labor Force Projections to 2024: the Labor Force is Growing, but Slowly by Mitra Toosi, and Oregon population forecasts from the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis.