Rogue Valley Employment Projections by Occupation 2017-2027

by Guy Tauer

July 9, 2018

During the decade from 2017 to 2027, Rogue Valley employment is expected to grow from 123,163 to 137,574, an increase of 11.7 percent. In addition to the 14,111 new jobs that are forecast due to growth, there will be 148,807 job openings due to the need to replace workers who leave the occupation or the workforce. A worker who leaves a job, and then is hired to do the same job at another establishment, would not be counted as a replacement opening. However, if a worker quits a bartending job because they land a job as an accountant, it would be considered a replacement bartender opening because the worker is changing to a different occupational group.

The share of total openings that are from replacements varies widely from over 95 percent in the office and administrative support, and sales and related groups to about 80 percent in construction and extraction, and health care occupational groups. All together this means about 16,000 job openings in the Rogue Valley per year until 2027. Human resources take note, you’ll be busy!

The service occupational group had the largest share of total jobs in 2017 and is also expected to add the most new jobs and have the greatest number of total openings by 2027. Often faster-growing occupational groups like health care may make headlines because it’s such a critical occupational group for our region. But the service occupational group is expected to have more than quadruple as many total openings as the health care occupational group. About one-half of service occupational openings are projected to be in food preparation and service occupations. Personal care services, building maintenance and ground keeping, and protective service occupations are included in this large occupational group.

Occupational groups with the next greatest total openings were sales and related, and office and administrative support, each with about 21,800 total openings. These groups have modest growth rates of 6.7 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively. Due to the large numbers employed and with more than 95 percent of total openings coming from replacement needs, these two occupation groups will have over 40,000 total openings by 2027. Professional and related occupations are expected to have about 15,800 total openings from 2017 to 2027, with a growth rate of about 10 percent which is just slightly slower than the all-occupation average. The faster-growing health care occupational group is expected to grow by 17.7 percent during the forecast period, adding 1,963 jobs due to growth and 8,576 jobs due to replacement needs.

Production occupations are expected to grow 6.9 percent by 2027, adding about 500 jobs due to growth. About 95 percent of total openings will be from replacement needs, leaving the forecast total openings figure at about 9,200. Construction and extraction occupations are predicted to be fast growing through 2027. With a growth rate of 21.7 percent and more than 6,000 openings due to replacement needs, more than 7,200 construction occupation openings will need to be filled in the Rogue Valley by 2027. With even slightly faster growth, the farming, forestry, and fishing group is expected to have about 690 jobs due to growth openings and another 5,000 jobs due to replacement job openings. Farmworkers and laborers for crops, nurseries, and greenhouses and forest and conservation workers are the two occupations with the most projected openings through 2027. The “other miscellaneous crop farming” industry grew by about 1,000 percent in four years, almost all due to the ramp up in marijuana production. Of course this meteoric rise isn’t likely to continue as the market shakes out the less competitive businesses and oversupply leads to falling marijuana retail prices, which makes it less lucrative to be in that business. So there are many uncertainties around the future of the cannabis industry and occupations that support it. Barring some sweeping crackdown at the federal level, this occupational group should keep “growing” through 2027.
This is just a quick overview of the detailed occupation projections that the Oregon Employment Department just released. To see the whole shebang, including detailed occupations for Oregon and other areas, go to https://www.QualityInfo.org/pubs.


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