Rogue Valley Statistics from Portland State University Population Report

by Guy Tauer

May 9, 2018

Each year, Portland State University’s population research center releases additional population and demographic data in their Annual Population Report. One bit of interesting data from this report is the components of population change. Those are the figures that show natural population increase, which are births minus deaths. The report also includes the population change from net migration – the difference between those that migrate in and residents who move out of the area.

These data show that Jackson County added residents between 2010 and 2017 from both natural increase and net migration. Klamath County and Oregon statewide also had natural population increase and positive net migration during that time. On the other hand, other counties in this corner of Oregon had more deaths than births, for a negative natural population change. Curry County (-1,411), Douglas (-2,380), and Josephine County (-2,560) all had more deaths than births between 2010 and 2017. Josephine County had the greatest total natural population decrease among all Oregon counties from 2010 to 2017. Those counties with more deaths than births typically had a higher percent of residents age 65 and older. Curry County (33.0%), Josephine County (26.6%), and Douglas County (25.9%) had high shares of older residents.

On the other hand, only 17.2 percent of Oregon’s population were 65 years and older. Jackson County (21.8%) and Klamath County (21.6%) also had slightly lower shares of older residents than those counties in Southern Oregon that had more deaths than births between 2010 and 2017.

Net migration was positive for almost every Oregon county between 2010 and 2017. The exceptions were Malheur and Harney Counties, where 399 and 27 more residents moved out than residents who migrated in during that time, respectively. Even among Southern Oregon counties where there was natural population increase, most of the total population increase was due to positive net migration.
City Population Change

Oregon’s total population rose by 8.1 percent from 2010 to 2017. Cities in the Rogue Valley all trailed the statewide growth rate. While the chart shows Grants Pass as nearly matching the statewide growth rate, it should be noted that about half of the city’s increase was due to annexation of land that added 1,342 new residents to Grants Pass that were formerly in unincorporated areas within Josephine County. Medford added nearly 4,700 residents during that time, for a growth rate of 6.2 percent. Eagle Point, Jacksonville, and Shady Cove had population change above 5.0 percent during those seven years, but the total population change ranged between 165 and 461 for those cities. Ashland and Central Point had growth rates of 3.1 percent, for total increases of 622 and 531, respectively.
Population by Age and Sex

In the Rogue Valley, about 48.7 percent of the population were males in 2017. Where females start to outnumber males are in the older age groups, reflecting the longer typical female lifespan. In both counties, the most populous age cohorts for males and females were in the 60 to 64 year old group. The age groups just older and younger than that group also comprise large shares of the Rogue Valley’s total population.
The most prominent difference in the population by age mix between Jackson and Josephine counties are in the 20 to 49 year old ranges. In Jackson County, population totals for each of those five-year group was fairly similar. In Josephine County, there were substantially more residents in the 45 to 49 year old group compared with the 20 to 24 year-old cohort.

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