Who Are the COVID-19 Unemployed in Oregon?
June 11, 2020 One of the most visible and devastating impacts of the state’s stay-at-home order to protect us from the human health crisis presented by COVID-19 has been mass layoffs. Tens of millions of initial claims for unemployment insurance were filed across the nation in the first 12 weeks of the crisis. Here in Oregon about 450,000 initial claims for traditional unemployment insurance were received in the first 12 weeks, greater than 20 percent of the statewide labor force.During “normal” times we would typically not talk too much about unemployment insurance claims. Even during our last recession that began in 2008, the increase in unemployment insurance claims was relatively gradual. The rapid onset of the COVID-19 restrictions meant that our traditional economic indicators, such as total nonfarm employment or the unemployment rate, could not immediately show the severity of this economic shock. That left us with the unemployment insurance claims data as one of the few indicators in the first weeks of the shock that could help us understand the magnitude of the crisis. That changed with the April jobs numbers, published in May, which echo the trends in unemployment insurance claims and show record-shattering job losses totaling nearly 270,000 jobs during March and April.
We now have 12 weeks of processed initial claims data representing more than 357,000 initial claims, which is a large enough group for us to draw some conclusions about industries, areas, and populations most impacted at the onset of the crisis.
Let’s start with the regional distribution of these initial unemployment insurance claims. Not surprisingly the most populated counties have the largest number of initial unemployment insurance claims, with Multnomah County (82,218 claims) and Washington County (45,598 claims) in the Portland Metro area topping the list of counties with the highest number of claims processed. However, we can see a clearer picture of the hardest hit counties by looking at the number of initial claims as a share of the total pre-COVID labor force. Counties with large accommodation and food service sectors and tourism destinations were the hardest hit. The number of initial claims in Lincoln County represented nearly 25 percent of the labor force and 24 percent of the labor force in Clatsop County. Deschutes County had the highest share of unemployment insurance claims among Oregon’s metropolitan counties, accounting for over 19 percent of the Bend MSA labor force.

As would be expected, accommodation and food services has been the hardest hit industry during the current crisis, with initial claims processed over the past 12 weeks representing 40 percent of statewide employment in the industry. Arts, entertainment, and recreation was the next hardest hit as museums, ski resorts, zoos, and other recreation companies have closed or seen their operations significantly curtailed. Another hard hit industry is “other services,” which includes personal care services like fitness instructors, childcare workers, barbers/stylists, massage therapists, and pet groomers.

Layoffs in construction and manufacturing are likely a result of an inability for many of these businesses to implement effective social distancing requirements. However, as this crisis continues, layoffs are increasingly due to a demand shock from less consumer spending. The one commonality among these hardest hit industries is an inability for many of the jobs to transition to work from home and the design of workplaces that makes social distancing difficult.
Although these COVID-related layoffs are spread across all industries, it is becoming clear that the most vulnerable Oregonians are being impacted more significantly. Lower-paying occupational groups posted notably higher shares of layoffs than higher-paying occupational groups. The occupational groups with a median hourly rate of less than $20 an hour represented around 66 percent of total initial claims for unemployment insurance processed over the first 12 weeks. This represents a higher share than the 58 percent of statewide employment these lower-paying occupations account for. Meanwhile, the highest-paying occupational groups, those with a median hourly rate greater than $30, represent nearly 14 percent of initial claims processed, but 22 percent of total employment.




There are similar non-response issues with race. Roughly 20 percent of the unemployment insurance initial claims with some demographic information did not include race. Additionally, no unemployment insurance claimants were coded into the “two or more races” category. Excluding those non-responses, the racial and ethnic breakout of the COVID unemployed looks very similar to Oregon’s labor force who identify as a single race. However, similar to gender it is difficult to definitively state that all racial and ethnic groups are being impacted similarly relative to their size, as the non-response rate is high enough to leave open some uncertainty.
