Data Sources and Limitations
for Occupational ProjectionsEvery two years, the Oregon Employment Department undertakes the task of projecting employment by occupation 10 years into the future. These employment projections are developed with several goals in mind:
- to determine a justifiable, accurate, projected employment growth rate that closely mimics the actual growth rate,
- to develop accurate, broad occupational trends,
- to determine which occupations will be high-growth occupations, and
- to determine which occupations will decline.
The occupational employment projections are based primarily on three sets of data: 1) industrial employment projections, 2) an annual occupational survey of employers, and 3) national change factors (data used to identify economic changes not captured in the first two sets of data). In all phases of developing these projections, a degree of analyst judgment is incorporated.
Projections for each region are made independently, and may not necessarily sum to values listed for Oregon as a whole.
Explanation of Projected Annual Job Openings
Change openings are due to employment growth within an occupation and represent the difference between the current and projected employment in the occupation.
A replacement opening is a job opening caused by an existing worker leaving an occupation. Reasons for leaving an occupation include retirement, major occupational changes, disability, death, or caring for family. More job openings are created due to turnover caused by people who change jobs while remaining within the occupation. Turnover openings are not included in replacement openings.
Total job openings are the sum of change openings and replacement openings.