Data Sources and Limitations
for Occupational ProjectionsEvery two years, the Oregon Employment Department undertakes the task of projecting employment by occupation 10 years into the future. These employment projections are developed with several goals in mind:
- to determine a justifiable, accurate, projected employment growth rate that closely mimics the actual growth rate,
- to develop accurate, broad occupational trends,
- to determine which occupations will be high-growth occupations, and
- to determine which occupations will decline.
The occupational employment projections are based primarily on three sets of data: 1) industrial employment projections, 2) an annual occupational survey of employers, and 3) national change factors (data used to identify economic changes not captured in the first two sets of data). In all phases of developing these projections, a degree of analyst judgment is incorporated.
Projections for each region are made independently, and may not necessarily sum to values listed for Oregon as a whole.
Explanation of Projected Annual Job Openings
Change openings are due to net growth in the occupation
Openings due to the employment growth of an occupation is one of two sources of demand for new workers in the occupation. Change openings represent the difference between the current and projected employment in the occupation.
Replacement openings are due to workers leaving the occupation
A replacement opening is a job opening caused by an existing worker leaving the occupation. Reasons for leaving an occupation include retirement, major occupational changes, caring for family, death, and disability. Like change openings, replacement openings are a source of demand for newly trained workers in the occupation. The replacement openings shown in the table are "replacement openings," the minimum number of replacement job openings that will need to be filled by new entrants to the occupation – those who do not work in the occupation. More job openings are likely to be available due to "turnover" caused by people who change jobs while remaining within the occupation. Those 'turnover" openings are not measured here.
Total job openings are the sum of growth and net replacement openings
The data in the total job openings column are the sums of the data in the growth and replacement columns. Due to rounding, the total may be one job opening higher or lower than the sum of the rounded detail.