2024-2034 Employment Projections in the Mid-Valley

March 26, 2026

The Mid-Valley Workforce Area (Linn, Marion, Polk, and Yamhill counties) will add more than 18,000 jobs between 2024 and 2034. This represents a 6% increase in employment over 10 years. The growth stems from anticipated private-sector gains of more than 16,000 jobs (7%) and the addition of 900 jobs (2%) in government. This projected 6% growth rate is slower than the 18% growth seen over the past decade in the Mid-Valley. One reason for the slower 6% growth compared to the 18% growth in the prior decade is that in 2015 the Mid-Valley’s employment was not too far from the 2011 employment lows that occurred during the Great Recession. Growing from a low point in the business cycle is one reason the Mid-Valley showed fast employment growth from 2015 to 2025. 

Beyond gains from economic growth, an additional 350,000 job openings will be created by 2034 as workers change occupations or leave for other reasons, such as retirement. 

The 2024 to 2034 employment projections bring together several ongoing trends over the past few years as well as newer ones. A fast-growing health care sector has been taking place for a number of years, due in part to an aging population. Health care is showing slower projected growth than has been projected in recent years, but it is still projected to be the fastest growing sector, with projected employment growth of 14%, more than twice as fast as total employment is projected to grow. Another long-term trend is public sector employment growing more slowly than private sector employment. A newer trend is fast job growth in the construction sector, which is projected to grow 10%. 

Industry Projections

There will be job growth in all the broad private-sector industries by 2034. 

The region’s private education and health services is projected to add the most jobs (+6,500 jobs). In addition to adding the most jobs, private education and health services will also be the fastest growing sector, growing 12% over the decade. Within the trade, transportation, and utilities sector the fastest growth is projected within transportation, warehousing, and utilities which is projected to add 1,000 jobs or 9% growth from 2024 to 2034.  

Construction is projected to add 1,800 jobs or 10% growth from 2024 to 2034.

The public sector overall is expected to add 900 jobs or 2% growth from 2024 to 2034. State government is projected to grow 5%, adding 1,100 jobs. Local government employment is projected to overall be flat over the decade. Within local government, local government education employment is projected to decline -3%, losing 500 jobs. Federal government employment is also projected to decline -8%, losing 200 jobs. 

Occupational Projections

Between 2024 and 2034, there will be job openings in all occupations in the Mid-Valley. 

The fastest growing occupations in the Mid-Valley from 2024 to 2034 include:

1. Nurse Practitioners
2. Ophthalmic Medical Technicians
3. Physician Assistants
4. Medical and Health Services Managers
5. Information Security Analysts
6. Veterinarians
7. Logisticians
8. Physical Therapist Assistants
9. Marriage and Family Therapists
10. Operations Research Analysts

Economic diversity in the Mid-Valley Workforce Area is demonstrated by the two different broad occupational categories projected to have the most job openings in the region: service occupations (88,900 openings), and management, business, and financial occupations (42,300 openings). Service occupations include jobs as varied as emergency services, pest control workers, and fast-food cooks. 

Health care occupations are some of the fastest growing occupations, driven in large part by the aging population. Nurse practitioners, physical therapist assistants, and physician assistants are among the fastest-growing occupations in the region. 

In terms of actual job counts though fast-food workers, home health care aides, stockers and order fillers, personal care and service workers, and retail salespersons are the five occupations with the most job openings anticipated by 2034. These are all large occupations, and they will all experience some openings due to economic growth, but also due to the retirement or other departures of existing workers.

Occupations with the most job openings anticipated in the Mid-Valley include:

1. Fast Food and Counter Workers
2. Home Health and Personal Care Aides
3. Stockers and Order Fillers
4. Personal Care and Service Workers, All Other
5. Retail Salespersons
6. Cashiers
7. Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse
8. Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners
9. Waiters and Waitresses
10. Office Clerks, General

In addition to the 18,300 new jobs from businesses opening or expanding, the region’s employers will also need sufficiently trained workers for the 350,300 openings due to the need to replace those leaving occupations. Replacement openings will comprise a majority of job openings in all major occupational groups. 

Other Regional Projections

All areas of Oregon expect to see job opportunities due to both economic growth, and to replace workers leaving the labor force or leaving their occupation in the coming years. The two regions projected to grow at the fastest rates are the Portland area (7%) and Central Oregon (7%). The Mid-Valley’s employment is projected to grow 6%, matching Oregon’s statewide rate of 6%.